江西銅業(yè)集團(tuán)公司副總經(jīng)理吳育能日前在出席“第十四屆上海衍生品市場(chǎng)論壇江銅專場(chǎng)”時(shí)表示，經(jīng)過(guò)多年的發(fā)展，我國(guó)銅行業(yè)正經(jīng)歷著銅冶煉從粗放到集約、銅加工從追求規(guī)模到追求質(zhì)量、銅進(jìn)口從精銅為主到原料為主、銅消費(fèi)數(shù)量從高速增長(zhǎng)到中速增長(zhǎng)等變化，在“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略機(jī)遇下，中國(guó)銅工業(yè)應(yīng)進(jìn)一步深化供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革，優(yōu)化升級(jí)產(chǎn)業(yè)布局。

　　由江西銅業(yè)集團(tuán)公司主辦，金瑞期貨股份有限公司承辦的第十四屆上海衍生品市場(chǎng)論壇江銅專場(chǎng)，吸引了來(lái)自有色行業(yè)專家、有色企業(yè)代表共300余人參加會(huì)議。

　　中國(guó)用銅將迎來(lái)中速增長(zhǎng)期

　　吳育能表示，中國(guó)用銅增長(zhǎng)高速期已經(jīng)過(guò)去，將迎來(lái)中速增長(zhǎng)期。

　　相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2001至2009年中國(guó)銅消費(fèi)平均增速為13%，2009至2014年平均增速為9%，2015至2016年已放緩至3%~5%。

　　他認(rèn)為，今后2~3年，全球?qū)_中國(guó)消費(fèi)下滑的力量可能來(lái)自于美國(guó)重啟基建、“一帶一路”相關(guān)國(guó)家的投資活動(dòng)等。更長(zhǎng)周期看，印度和東南亞等新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體將是下一輪增長(zhǎng)引擎。

　　而從消費(fèi)領(lǐng)域來(lái)看，盡管傳統(tǒng)領(lǐng)域正遭遇著一些應(yīng)用替代，銅應(yīng)用正在積極開(kāi)拓新興領(lǐng)域，如在海水養(yǎng)殖，海水淡化、新能源汽車、充電樁、太陽(yáng)能集熱器、空氣源熱泵等領(lǐng)域?qū)︺~的需求都在不斷增加。根據(jù)國(guó)際銅業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)數(shù)據(jù)，目前海水養(yǎng)殖網(wǎng)箱市場(chǎng)的用銅潛力為46萬(wàn)噸，“十三五”期間太陽(yáng)能熱利用將拉動(dòng)銅需求量累計(jì)達(dá)到7萬(wàn)噸;2020年空氣源熱泵將實(shí)現(xiàn)年均5萬(wàn)噸以上新增市場(chǎng);此外，在國(guó)家政策的推動(dòng)下，預(yù)計(jì)到2020年，純電動(dòng)汽車和插電式混合動(dòng)力汽車?yán)塾?jì)產(chǎn)銷量將超過(guò)500萬(wàn)輛，新能源汽車屆時(shí)將帶動(dòng)40萬(wàn)噸銅消費(fèi);充電樁的建設(shè)將帶動(dòng)銅消費(fèi)至少8萬(wàn)噸。

　　“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略帶來(lái)銅產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展機(jī)遇

　　吳育能表示，“一帶一路”國(guó)家目前銅需求較小，但礦產(chǎn)資源較為豐富，中國(guó)原料對(duì)外依存度高，需求量大，可資源互補(bǔ)。“一帶一路”沿線大部分國(guó)家的銅礦業(yè)開(kāi)發(fā)落后，但中國(guó)在銅采、選、冶方面的工藝技術(shù)和裝備已達(dá)到世界先進(jìn)水平，可技術(shù)互補(bǔ)。“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略為銅工業(yè)帶來(lái)了巨大的空間和發(fā)展機(jī)遇，有助于提升我國(guó)資源保障度，同時(shí)有色企業(yè)在“一帶一路”建設(shè)中也大有可為。

　　“我國(guó)銅資源匱乏，對(duì)外依存度達(dá)到70%以上，銅企應(yīng)該積極‘走出去’，提早布局海外優(yōu)勢(shì)礦山資源。”吳育能表示，中國(guó)目前獲得的境外資源仍主要位于南美和非洲區(qū)域，而“一帶一路”沿線資源開(kāi)發(fā)潛力巨大，其中哈薩克斯坦、俄羅斯、印尼等國(guó)銅礦資源豐富，資源儲(chǔ)備在全球排名靠前，銅企應(yīng)該積極“走出去”，未來(lái)資源布局更多向中東歐、中亞以及東南亞等“一帶一路”沿線傾斜進(jìn)行布局。同時(shí)，要促進(jìn)優(yōu)勢(shì)產(chǎn)能“走出去”，本著靠近資源、靠近消費(fèi)的原則，在境外提早布局優(yōu)勢(shì)冶煉和加工能力。

　　深化供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)布局

　　除積極“走出去”，積極布局海外市場(chǎng)外，吳育能指出，目前中國(guó)銅行業(yè)還存在產(chǎn)業(yè)集中度較低，銅礦資源、冶煉產(chǎn)能、加工能力分布不對(duì)稱等問(wèn)題，也應(yīng)提升集中度，嚴(yán)控產(chǎn)能無(wú)序擴(kuò)張，進(jìn)一步優(yōu)化升級(jí)產(chǎn)業(yè)布局。

　　資料顯示，我國(guó)銅礦資源分布廣泛，在已查明的礦產(chǎn)地除天津以外的所有省市均有不同程度分布，而精銅生產(chǎn)地集中在華東地區(qū)，銅的主要消費(fèi)地在華東和華南地區(qū)。

　　吳育能認(rèn)為，最優(yōu)布局應(yīng)是冶煉靠近資源地、靠近港口，提升效益;加工產(chǎn)能靠近消費(fèi)地，提升效率。以日本為例，冶煉廠全部分布在沿海地區(qū)，方便運(yùn)輸，但中國(guó)70%左右冶煉產(chǎn)能在內(nèi)陸地區(qū)，運(yùn)輸成本高，金屬損失量大，需積累庫(kù)存保證生產(chǎn)，銅礦資源與冶煉產(chǎn)能分布不對(duì)稱，應(yīng)進(jìn)一步優(yōu)化升級(jí)產(chǎn)業(yè)布局。

　　供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革是中國(guó)“十三五”期間經(jīng)濟(jì)改革的關(guān)鍵、重點(diǎn)。吳育能強(qiáng)調(diào)，銅產(chǎn)業(yè)應(yīng)積極深化供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革——淘汰落后產(chǎn)能，退出過(guò)剩產(chǎn)能，關(guān)停虧損產(chǎn)能，從嚴(yán)控制新建銅冶煉項(xiàng)目和中低端銅桿線及板帶項(xiàng)目;同時(shí)，嚴(yán)格落實(shí)國(guó)家環(huán)保和能耗政策，提升產(chǎn)業(yè)集中度，鼓勵(lì)龍頭企業(yè)通過(guò)兼并重組做優(yōu)做強(qiáng)。

　　Wu Yuneng, deputy general manager of Jiangxi Copper Group Corporation, recently attended the "14th Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum Jiangxi Copper Special Session" and said that after years of development, my country’s copper industry is experiencing a transition from extensive copper smelting to copper smelting. Intensive, copper processing changes from the pursuit of scale to the pursuit of quality, copper imports from refined copper to raw materials, and copper consumption from high-speed growth to medium-speed growth. Under the strategic opportunity of "One Belt One Road", China's copper industry The supply-side structural reform should be further deepened, and the industrial layout should be optimized and upgraded.

　　 The Jiangxi Copper Special Session of the 14th Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum hosted by Jiangxi Copper Group Corporation and undertaken by Jinrui Futures Co., Ltd. attracted more than 300 people from non-ferrous industry experts and representatives of non-ferrous enterprises.

　　 China's copper consumption will usher in a period of medium-speed growth

　　Wu Yuneng said that the period of high-speed growth of copper consumption in China has passed, and a period of medium-speed growth will be ushered in.

　　Related data show that the average growth rate of copper consumption in China from 2001 to 2009 was 13%, and the average growth rate from 2009 to 2014 was 9%, and from 2015 to 2016 it has slowed to 3%~5%.

　　 He believes that in the next two to three years, the global force to hedge against the decline in China’s consumption may come from the United States’ reopening of infrastructure and the “Belt and Road” investment activities in related countries. In the longer term, emerging economies such as India and Southeast Asia will be the next growth engines.

　　 From the perspective of the consumer field, although traditional fields are experiencing some application substitutions, copper applications are actively exploring emerging fields, such as marine aquaculture, seawater desalination, new energy vehicles, charging piles, solar collectors, and air sources. The demand for copper in areas such as heat pumps is increasing. According to the data of the International Copper Association, the current copper use potential in the marine aquaculture cage market is 460,000 tons. During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, solar thermal utilization will drive the cumulative copper demand to 70,000 tons; in 2020, air source heat pumps will To achieve an average annual new market of more than 50,000 tons; in addition, under the promotion of national policies, it is expected that by 2020, the cumulative production and sales of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles will exceed 5 million, and new energy vehicles will be driven by that time 400,000 tons of copper consumption; the construction of charging piles will drive copper consumption at least 80,000 tons.

　　“The Belt and Road Initiative” strategy brings copper industry development opportunities

　　Wu Yuneng said, "One Belt One Road" the country currently has a small demand for copper, but it has abundant mineral resources. China has a high degree of dependence on foreign raw materials and a large demand, which can complement resources. The development of copper mining in most countries along the "Belt and Road" is backward, but China's copper mining, processing, and smelting process technology and equipment have reached the world's advanced level, and technology can complement each other. The "One Belt, One Road" strategy has brought huge space and development opportunities to the copper industry, which will help improve my country's resource security. At the same time, non-ferrous enterprises have a lot to do in the construction of the "One Belt, One Road".

　　“my country's copper resources are scarce, and its dependence on foreign countries has reached more than 70%. Copper companies should actively ‘go out’ and deploy overseas advantageous mine resources early. "Wu Yuneng said that China's current overseas resources are still mainly located in South America and Africa, while the "Belt and Road" has great potential for resource development. Among them, Kazakhstan, Russia, Indonesia and other countries have rich copper resources, and resource reserves are global In the top rankings, copper companies should actively "go out", and in the future, the resource layout will be more inclined to deploy along the "Belt and Road" routes in Central and Eastern Europe, Central Asia and Southeast Asia. At the same time, it is necessary to promote the advantage of production capacity “going out”, based on the principle of being close to resources and close to consumption, and early deployment of advantageous smelting and processing capabilities abroad.

　　 Deepen the supply-side structural reform and optimize the industrial layout

　　In addition to actively "going out" and actively deploying overseas markets, Wu Yuneng pointed out that the current Chinese copper industry still has a low industrial concentration, and the distribution of copper resources, smelting capacity, and processing capacity is not symmetrical. Increase concentration, strictly control the disorderly expansion of production capacity, and further optimize and upgrade the industrial layout.

　　Data shows that my country’s copper resources are widely distributed, and are distributed to varying degrees in all provinces and cities except Tianjin. The refined copper production areas are concentrated in East China, and the main copper consumption areas are in East China. And South China.

　　Wu Yuneng believes that the optimal layout should be that smelting is close to resource areas and ports to increase efficiency; processing capacity is close to consumption areas to increase efficiency. Take Japan as an example. All smelters are located in coastal areas, which is convenient for transportation. However, about 70% of China's smelting capacity is in inland areas, transportation costs are high, and metal losses are large, and inventory must be accumulated to ensure production. Copper resources and smelting capacity distribution Asymmetry, the industrial layout should be further optimized and upgraded.

　　Supply-side structural reform is the key and focus of China's economic reform during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period. Wu Yuneng emphasized that the copper industry should actively deepen supply-side structural reforms—eliminate outdated production capacity, exit excess production capacity, shut down loss-making production capacity, and strictly control new copper smelting projects and low-end copper rod, wire and strip projects; at the same time , Strictly implement the national environmental protection and energy consumption policies, increase industrial concentration, and encourage leading companies to become better and stronger through mergers and reorganizations.